Well, Obama promised change. I don’t think this election is quite what he had in mind. It’s hard to read the polls as anything but a repudiation of the Democrats now in power. Republicans will read this as a rejection of Obama’s agenda. Democrats will read it as a rejection of Obama’s failure to execute his agenda. Both will be wrong. Republicans remain as unpopular as ever. They were soundly defeated two years ago. Democrats are the new whipping boys, for precisely the same reasons the GOP was trounced in 2008. It’s the economy, stupid, and the failure of our politicians to address it. Government is broken, and everybody knows it except those vying for power. The only reason the GOP is going to triumph in this round is that there’s nowhere else for the electorate to go. With two more years of gridlock virtually assured, it’s hard to know who will be repudiated in 2012.
It may be a bit premature to predict the outcome of todays’ midterm primary elections, but given the unending stream of bad economic and environmental news and the generally sour mood of the electorate, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that incumbents, even if they eke out victories, are in big trouble, and that a variety of raging nutbags, who in normal times would attract scant attention, will probably end up garnering a fair share of the vote.