It remains to be seen if the current unrest in Iran leads to genuine reform, or if it will end in a bloody repression. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, apparently badly misjudged the mood of the people, and he’s clearly having trouble putting the genie back in the bottle. The Iranian population, young and eager for economic progress and a loosening of the strict Islamic rule, may well have believed that their voices would count in this election. Khamenei’s hurried endorsement of what appears to be a stolen election, followed by his tepid agreement for a limited recount, have weakened him and his puppet hard-line president, Ahmadinejad. He controls the military and the privileged classes support the status quo. It’s unlikely that he will cede much power. The question is how will he choose to restore order–with meaningful reforms, or with the gun.